Do people brace sensibly? Risk judgments and event likelihood.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Previous research has shown that people become pessimistic about potentially bad news to "brace for the worst." Three studies examined whether people brace differently for rare and common negative events. Results reveal that people brace more for rare negative events than for common negative events (Studies 1-3a), but only when the event is self-relevant (Study 3b). Results also show that people brace more for rare events when feedback is imminent (Study 1), when negative outcomes are salient (Study 2), and when the outcomes are important or consequential (Study 3a). The authors discuss several possible explanations for the findings, including ignorance of the base rate, random responding, and anchoring and adjustment, and ultimately suggest that people may brace "enough."
منابع مشابه
On decision making without likelihood judgment
Subjective expected utility, prospect theory and most other formal models of decision making under uncertainty are probabilistic: they assume that in making choices people judge the likelihood of relevant uncertainties. Clearly, in many situations people do indeed judge likelihood. However, we present studies suggesting that there are also many situations in which people do not judge likelihood...
متن کاملExperts' Judgments of Likelihood: Fast but not Frugal?
A novel explanation of judgments by experts about the likely outcome of events is presented. It is proposed that these judgments are derived from a combination of the likelihood of every known risk factor that could affect the outcome of the uncertain event, each weighted by the chance recalling that risk. To test this proposal, an ACT-R model was developed in a study of Royal Navy officers. Ea...
متن کاملAnother look at why people are reluctant to exchange lottery tickets.
People are reluctant to exchange lottery tickets, a result that previous investigators have attributed to anticipated regret. The authors suggest that people's subjective likelihood judgments also make them disinclined to switch. Four studies examined likelihood judgments with respect to exchanged and retained lottery tickets and found that (a) exchanged tickets are judged more likely to win a ...
متن کاملUnderstanding Lay Assessments of Alcohol Use Disorder: Need for Treatment and Associated Stigma.
AIMS Three-quarters of people with an alcohol use disorder in the USA never receive treatment. Our understandings of who receives care are informed by sociological perspectives, theories and models, each of which discuss the role of lay people's understanding of illness. However, comparatively little work has been done to unpack the cognitive processes underlying lay assessment. In the context ...
متن کاملUnderstanding natural dynamics.
When making dynamical judgments, people can make effective use of only one salient dimension of information present in the event. People do not make dynamical judgments by deriving multidimensional quantities. The adequacy of dynamical judgments, therefore, depends on the degree of dimensionality that is both inherent in the physics of the event and presumed to be present by the observer. There...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Personality & social psychology bulletin
دوره 33 8 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2007